An Analysis of Economic Indicators Influencing the Fisheries Sector in Libya for the Period (2000–2019)

Abstract

This study addresses the reality of the fisheries sector in Libya, which remains unable to meet the target increase in domestic production to satisfy food demand. The research highlights that the phenomenon of rising fish prices is a complex economic issue shaped by multiple factors rather than a single indicator. Key drivers identified include demographic growth rates, a decline in the proportion of fish-farmed lands, and unequal distribution. Furthermore, the study points to the lack of effectiveness in regulatory bodies to curb smuggling and the exploitation of coastlines, which directly impacts price hikes. Econometric analysis using EViews on a time series (2000–2019) revealed a positive correlation between fish production and consumption availability. The R-squared value of 0.51 indicates that 51% of the changes in local fish production are explained by variations in the independent variable (available consumption), while other factors account for the remaining percentage. The Durbin-Watson test result of 1.15 suggests a positive autocorrelation. The study also examines the Libyan coastline, which extends approximately 1,900 to 2,000 kilometers, and its continental shelf area of about 55,000 square kilometers. Despite this strategic location, production is hindered by illegal migration, lack of modern fishing equipment, and high labor costs. The research concludes that achieving food security requires implementing a specialized fishery development strategy, encouraging investment, and enhancing self-capacity to reach self-sufficiency.