Chemical Fertilizers: Between Supporting Agriculture and Threatening Sustainability and Public Health in Libya and Tunisia

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the dual impact of chemical fertilizers import in Libya and Tunisia during the period 2015–2023, focusing on economic, environmental, and public health implications. The research methodology relies on fertilizer import data (value and quantity) sourced from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAOSTAT) and economic indicators from the World Bank. Descriptive statistics and correlation analysis were employed to evaluate the relationship between import prices and agricultural Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The results reveal sharp fluctuations in fertilizer prices, peaking in 2022, which underscores the susceptibility of both economies to global market shocks. Furthermore, the analysis indicates a strong positive correlation between fertilizer prices and agricultural GDP in Tunisia (r = 0.854), suggesting a degree of sectoral resilience. On the environmental and health fronts, local field studies confirmed soil contamination with heavy metals and nitrates in Libya (Ashkidah Project, Derna) and Tunisia (Siliana). Such contamination poses significant threats to soil fertility, food safety, and human and animal health. The paper recommends the adoption of sustainable agricultural policies, investment in precision agriculture and bio-fertilizers, and the implementation of stringent quality controls on imported fertilizers to mitigate environmental and health risks.